Barclays PLC

NYSE:BCSUnited States

0856 GMT - A Trump victory in the U.S. is a positive for European capital markets banks, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods say. Barclays, Deutsche Bank and UBS trade 4.8%, 5.2% and 4.1% higher, respectively. The election outcome is a negative for banks with exposure to countries threatened by trade tariffs, such as Spain's BBVA, whose largest market is Mexico. BBVA shares drop 3.6%. The Stoxx Europe 600 banks subindex rises 0.9%. "A win for the Trump campaign asks more difficult questions for European politicians around geopolitics, trade tariffs. The second order effects will be key for bank fundamentals and equity prices, in particular the rate outlook," analysts led by Andrew Stimpson wrote in a note ahead of the election. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

1142 GMT - European bank stocks could react to the initial yield curve moves after the U.S. election, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods say in a research note. "With more caveats than normal, a Trump win would be beneficial for banks that benefit from more capital markets, a stronger USD and with less exposure to tariffs," analysts write. A Harris win would arguably be more surprising and a relief for the tariff-threatened economies with reverse consequences, they add. Taking into account Trump and Harris' probabilities since this summer, Trump-favored periods have been best for U.K., French and Swiss banks but worse for Benelux, German and Spanish lenders. Harris-favored periods were better for Germany, Benelux, and Austria, but worst for Spain, Ireland and the U.K., they add. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)