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  • Sep 10, 2024

      Show headlines and story abstract
    • 1:00AM ET on Tuesday Sep 10, 2024 by Dow Jones
      Companies Mentioned: GS, JBLU, T, KKR, TSCO, AAPL, APP, CMCSA, RUN
      By Ian Salisbury With the November presidential election just weeks away, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck. It means there's a lot riding on Tuesday's debate. The biggest impact for investors is likely to come if either party sweeps the election -- taking the presidency and both houses of Congress -- enabling it to pass an ambitious agenda, investment firm Oppenheimer told clients Monday. If Republicans win it could mean lower corporate taxes and less aggressive antitrust regulation, benefiting Wall Street, big tech, and more. If Democrats prevail, Americans are likely to see more spending on green technology, and more money in the pockets of low-income consumers, Oppenheimer argues. Of course, the odds of a clean sweep might seem relatively small -- plenty of Senate and House races are also tossups. But investors would do well to remember that the hard-fought 2016 and 2020 elections ended with one party in control of both the White House and Congress. And Tuesday's debate could still be a big wild card, with the potential to shift momentum in the race. Just look at what happened after the first debate. Here are 10 names from Oppenheimer's list of stocks that stand to benefit most if either party manages a sweep in November -- and actually puts its agenda into practice. Consumer goods If Republicans sweep: Tractor Supply The retail farm- and ranch-supply store chain stands to benefit from improved consumer sentiment in rural communities, says Oppenheimer. If Democrats sweep: Five Below Inflation has hit Five Below's core low-income customers hard, putting a big drag on the discount chain's stock price. But Democratic tax policies could put more money in their pockets. It would also lessen the risk of higher China tariffs, a big potential headwind for a company that relies on imported merchandise. Banks and Private equity If Republicans sweep: Goldman Sachs The Biden-Harris Administration has been aggressive about targeting mergers it thinks may hurt consumers, including proposed linkups between JetBlue and Spirit and even the corporate parents of luxury handbag makers Coach and Michael Kors, Oppenheimer notes. The result has been a "chilling effect on strategic M&A." A Trump win could lead to a rush of deals -- potentially benefiting Goldman Sachs, the nation's leading merger and acquisitions banker. If Democrats sweep: KKR KKR has raised billions to invest in infrastructure funds that stand to benefit as the U.S. and other nations transition from fossil fuels to cleaner forms of energy. That transition is likely to move a lot faster if Democrats win big. Green energy If Republicans sweep: Tesla If Republicans take power, they are likely to kill additional incentives for companies to invest in new green technology, while keeping those for projects that are already under way, Oppenheimer argues. That could benefit Tesla, which stands to gain market share as rivals slow zero-emissions investments. If Democrats sweep: SunRun The solar panel installer stands to benefit from Democrats' commitment to clean energy. Technology If Republicans win: Apple The Biden-Harris Justice Department launched an antitrust suit earlier this year alleging the iPhone maker keeps too-tight control over how its devices work with outside apps. Oppenheimer says investors can count on Republicans to have a lighter touch when it comes to regulation of both antitrust issues and artificial intelligence, which Apple is working to integrate into its popular phones. If Democrats win: AppLovin This company, which helps software developers find ways to earn money from their apps, could be a big winner in a Democratic sweep. "Democrats will continue to pressure big technology platforms such as Meta and Google to yield control over search and social media," Oppenheimer writes. Communications If Republicans sweep: AT&T AT&T is a big payer of corporate taxes, and stands to benefit if Republicans make good on their proposal to reduce the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21%. The Democrats, by contrast, have said they would like to raise the rate to 28%. If Democrats sweep: Comcast Oppenheimer expects Democrats to favor allowing unlicensed or shared use on newly available segments of wireless spectrum, while Republicans favor licensing deals. The Democrat's approach could help Comcast expand its growing mobile phone business. Write to Ian Salisbury at ian.salisbury@barrons.com This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. (END) Dow Jones Newswires September 10, 2024 01:00 ET (05:00 GMT)
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